Only 3%? Polymarket Bets Against Bitcoin Reaching $1M in 2025
Polymarket gives BTC just a 3% chance to hit $1M this year — but is it too soon to count it out?
According to prediction platform Polymarket, the odds of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $1 million in 2025 stand at just 3% — a sobering estimate that reflects tempered expectations despite past bullish hype.
The idea of Bitcoin hitting seven figures isn’t new. In recent years, big names like Balaji Srinivasan and Cathie Wood have floated bold $1M BTC forecasts, often citing hyperinflation, institutional adoption, or geopolitical instability as catalysts. But Polymarket — a decentralized prediction market — aggregates real money bets from users, offering a more grounded view of what people actually believe will happen.
So, what does this 3% probability really tell us? It suggests that, while Bitcoin remains a powerful long-term play, most market participants don’t see an explosive price breakout happening in just a few months. Factors like interest rates, regulatory pressure, and risk-off sentiment in global markets may be dampening short-term optimism.
However, crypto is notoriously volatile, and things can shift fast. If major institutions accelerate their Bitcoin buys or macroeconomic crises unfold, sentiment — and odds — could change rapidly.
